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ABOUT
THIS FAQ
Page
last modified: 4 Apr 6
This
list of Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) has been compiled from questions asked
of the SPC as well as basic tornado research information and countless
scientific resources. More material will be added, time permitting.
The Tornado FAQ is not intended to be a
comprehensive guide to tornadoes. Instead, it is a quick-reference summary of
tornado knowledge, which will link you to more detailed information if you
desire. Recent books from your local library or a major university library are
still the deepest resource for learning about tornadoes and other severe storms;
so if you are doing your own research or school reports, please visit the
library in person. There are many good websites with tornado information also.
Some of them are linked from the answers below. None of the links to outside
websites implies any kind of commercial endorsement on the part of the SPC. The
intent here is to direct you to the best tornado info available. There is also a
partial list
of technical scientific references related to tornadoes for those with some
meteorological education and training.
NOTE: All images found in FAQ pages on this site must be public domain
and not copyrighted. However, credit MUST be given to National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration/Department of Commerce unless instructed to give
credit to the photographer or other source. Complete Tornado FAQ content is
found at the mirror-backup
site.

THE
BASICS ABOUT TORNADOES
What
is a tornado? According
to the Glossary of Meteorology (AMS 2000), a tornado is "a
violently rotating column of air, pendant from a cumuliform cloud or underneath
a cumuliform cloud, and often (but not always) visible as a funnel cloud."
Literally, in order for a vortex to be classified as a tornado, it must be in
contact with the ground and the cloud base. Weather scientists haven't
found it so simple in practice, however, to classify and define tornadoes. For
example, the difference is unclear between an strong mesocyclone (parent
thunderstorm circulation) on the ground, and a large, weak tornado. There is
also disgreement as to whether separate touchdowns of the same funnel constitute
separate tornadoes. It is well-known that a tornado may not
have a visible funnel. Also, at what wind speed of the cloud-to-ground
vortex does a tornado begin? How close must two or more different tornadic
circulations become to qualify as a one multiple-vortex
tornado, instead of separate tornadoes? There are no firm answers.
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How
do tornadoes form? The
classic answer -- "warm moist Gulf air meets cold Canadian air and dry air
from the Rockies" -- is a gross oversimplification. Many thunderstorms form
under those conditions (near warm fronts, cold fronts and drylines
respectively), which never even come close to producing tornadoes. Even
when the large-scale environment is extremely favorable for tornadic
thunderstorms, as in an SPC "High Risk" outlook, not every
thunderstorm spawns a tornado. The truth is that we don't fully understand. The
most destructive and deadly tornadoes occur from supercells
-- which are rotating thunderstorms with a well-defined radar circulation called
a mesocyclone. [Supercells
can also produce damaging
hail, severe non-tornadic winds, unusually frequent lightning,
and flash
floods.] Tornado formation is believed to be dictated mainly by things which
happen on
the storm scale, in and around the mesocyclone. Recent theories and results
from the VORTEX program suggest that once a mesocyclone
is underway, tornado development is related to the temperature differences
across the edge of downdraft air wrapping around the mesocyclone (the occlusion
downdraft). Mathematical modelling studies of tornado formation also
indicate that it can happen without such temperature patterns; and in fact, very
little temperature variation was observed near some of the most destructive
tornadoes in history on 3
May 1999. The details behind these theories are given in several of the Scientific
References accompanying this FAQ.
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What
direction do tornadoes come from? Does the region of the US play a role in
path direction? Tornadoes
can appear from any direction. Most move from southwest to northeast, or west to
east. Some tornadoes have changed direction amid path, or even backtracked. [A
tornado can double back suddenly, for example, when its bottom is hit by outflow
winds from a thunderstorm's core.] Some areas of the US tend to have more
paths from a specific direction, such as northwest in Minnesota or southeast in
coastal south Texas. This is because of an increased frequency of certain
tornado-producing weather patterns (say, hurricanes in south Texas, or
northwest-flow weather systems in the upper Midwest).
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Does
hail always come before the tornado? Rain? Lightning?
Utter silence? Not
necessarily, for any of those. Rain, wind, lightning,
and hail
characteristics vary from storm to storm, from one hour to the next, and even
with the direction the storm is moving with respect to the observer. While large
hail can indicate the presence of an unusually dangerous thunderstorm,
and can happen before a tornado, don't depend on it. Hail, or any
particular pattern of rain, lightning or calmness, is not a reliable predictor
of tornado threat.
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How
do tornadoes dissipate? The
details are still debated by tornado scientists. We do know tornadoes need a
source of instability (heat, moisture, etc.) and a larger-scale property of
rotation (vorticity) to keep going. There are a lot of processes around a
thunderstorm which can possibly rob the area around a tornado of either
instability or vorticity. One is relatively cold outflow
-- the flow of wind out of the precipitation area of a shower or thunderstorm.
Many tornadoes have been observed to go away soon after being hit by outflow.
For decades, storm observers have documented the death of numerous tornadoes
when their parent circulations ( mesocyclones)
weaken after they become wrapped in outflow air -- either from the same
thunderstorm or a different one. The irony is that some kinds of thunderstorm
outflow may help to cause tornadoes, while other forms of outflow may kill
tornadoes.
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Do
tornadoes really skip? Not
in a literal sense, despite what you may have read in many older references,
news stories, or even damage survey reports. By definition (above), a tornado
must be in contact with the ground. There is disagreement in meteorology over
whether or not multiple touchdowns of the same vortex or funnel
cloud mean different tornadoes (a strict interpretation). In either event,
stories of skipping tornadoes usually mean
- There was continuous contact between vortex and ground in the path, but it
was too weak to do damage;
- Multiple tornadoes happened; but there was no survey done to precisely
separate their paths (very common before the 1970s); or
- There were multiple tornadoes with only short separation, but the survey
erroneously classified them as one tornado.
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How
long does a tornado last? Tornadoes
can last from several seconds to more than an hour. The longest-lived tornado in
history is really unknown, because so many of the long-lived tornadoes reported
from the early 1900s and before are believed to be tornado series instead. Most
tornadoes last less than 10 minutes.
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How
close to a tornado does the barometer drop? And how far does it drop ?
It
varies. A barometer can start dropping many hours or even days in advance of a
tornado if there is low pressure on a broad scale moving into the area. Strong
pressure falls will often happen as the mesocyclone (parent circulation in the
thunderstorm) moves overhead or nearby. The biggest drop will be in the tornado
itself, of course. It is very hard to measure pressure in tornadoes since most
weather instruments can't survive. A few low-lying, armored probes called "turtles"
have been placed successfully in tornadoes. This includes one
deployment on 15 May 2003 by engineer/storm chaser Tim Samaras, who recorded
pressure fall of over 40 millibars through an unusually large tornado. On 24
June 2003, another of Tim's probes recorded a 100
millibar pressure plunge in a violent tornado near Manchester, SD. Despite
those spectacyular results, and a few fortuitous passes over barometers through
history, we still do not have a database of tornado pressures big enough to say
much about average tornado pressures or other barometric characterstics.
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What
is a waterspout? A
waterspout is a tornado
over water -- usually meaning non-supercell tornadoes over water.
Waterspouts are common along the southeast U.S. coast -- especially off southern
Florida and the Keys -- and can happen over seas, bays and lakes worldwide.
Although waterspouts are always tornadoes by definition; they don't officially
count in tornado records unless they hit land. They are smaller and weaker than
the most intense Great Plains tornadoes, but still can be quite dangerous.
Waterspouts can overturn small boats, damage ships, do significant damage when
hitting land, and kill people. The National
Weather Service will often issue special marine warnings when waterspouts
are likely or have been sighted over coastal waters, or tornado warnings when
waterspouts can move onshore.
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How
are tornadoes in the northern hemisphere different from tornadoes in the
southern hemisphere? The
sense of rotation is usually the opposite. Most tornadoes -- but not all! --
rotate cyclonically, which is counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere
and clockwise south of the equator. Anticyclonic
tornadoes (clockwise-spinning in the northern hemisphere) have been
observed, however -- usually in the form of waterspouts, non-supercell land
tornadoes, or anticyclonic whirls around the rim of a supercell's mesocyclone.
There have been several documented cases of cyclonic and anticyclonic tornadoes
under the same thunderstorm at the same time. Anticyclonically rotating
supercells with tornadoes are extremely rare; but one
struck near Sunnyvale, CA, in 1998. Remember, "cyclonic" tornadoes
spin counter-clockwise in the northern hemisphere, and clockwise.
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What
is a multivortex tornado? Multivortex
(a.k.a. multiple-vortex) tornadoes contain two or more small, intense subvortices
orbiting the center of the larger tornado circulation. When a tornado doesn't
contain too much dust and debris, they
can sometimes be spectacularly visible. These vortices may form and die
within a few seconds, sometimes appearing to train through the same part of the
tornado one after another. They can happen in all sorts of tornado sizes, from
huge "wedge"
tornadoes to narrow "rope"
tornadoes. Subvortices are the cause of most of the narrow, short, extreme
swaths of damage that sometimes arc through tornado tracks. From the air, they
can preferentially mow down crops and stack the stubble, leaving cycloidal
marks in fields. Multivortex tornadoes are the source of most of the old
stories from newspapers and other media before the late 20th century which told
of several tornadoes seen together at once.
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What
is the original F-scale? Dr.
T. Theodore Fujita developed a damage scale (Fujita 1971, Fujita and Pearson
1973) for winds, including tornadoes, which was supposed to relate the degree of
damage to the intensity of the wind. This
scale was the result. The original F-scale should not be used anymore,
because it has been replaced by an enhanced version.
Tornado wind speeds are still largely unknown; and the wind speeds on the
original F-scale have never been scientifically tested and proven. Different
winds may be needed to cause the same damage depending on how well-built a
structure is, wind direction, wind duration, battering by flying debris, and a
bunch of other factors. Also, the process of rating the damage itself is largely
a judgment call -- quite inconsistent and arbitrary (Doswell and Burgess, 1988).
Even meteorologists and engineers highly experienced in damage survey techniques
often came up with different F-scale ratings for the same damage. Even with all
its flaws, the original F-scale was the only widely used tornado rating method
for over three decades. The enhanced F-scale takes
effect 1 February 2007.
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What
is the Enhanced F-scale? The
Enhanced F-scale (simple
table or detailed 95
page PDF) is a much more precise and robust way to assess tornado damage
than the original.
It classifies F0-F5 damage as calibrated by engineers and meteorologists across
28 different types of damage indicators (mainly various kinds of buildings, but
also a few other structures as well as trees). The idea is that a "one size
fits all" approach just doesn't work in rating tornado damage, and that a
tornado scale needs to take into account the typical strengths and weaknesses of
different types of construction. This is because the same wind does different
things to different kinds of structures. In the Enhanced F-scale, there will be
different, customized standards for assigning any given F rating to a well
built, well anchored wood-frame house compared to a garage, school, skyscraper,
unanchored house, barn, factory, utility pole or other type of structure. In a
real-life tornado track, these ratings can be mapped together more smoothly to
make a damage analysis. Of course, there still will be gaps and weaknesses on a
track where there was little or nothing to damage, but such problems will be
less common than under the original
F-scale. As with the original F-scale, the enhanced version will rate the
tornado as a whole based on most intense damage within the path. There are no
plans to systematically re-evaluate historical tornadoes using the Enhanced
F-scale. A
full PDF document on the Enhanced F-scale is online.
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So
if the original F-scale winds are just guesses, why are they so specific?
Excellent
question. Those winds were arbitrarily attached to the damage scale based on
12-step mathematical interpolation between the hurricane criteria of the Beaufort
wind scale, and the threshold for Mach 1 (738 mph). Though the F-scale
actually peaks at F12 (Mach 1), only F1 through F5 are used in practice, with F0
attached for tornadoes of winds weaker than hurricane force. Again, F-scale
wind-to-damage relationships are untested, unknown and purely hypothetical. They
have never been proven and may not represent real tornadoes. F-scale winds
should not be taken literally.
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I
heard the Oklahoma City tornado was almost "F6." Is that a real level
on the original F-scale? Only
in untested theory. Fujita plotted hypothetical winds higher than F5; but as
mentioned in the previous answer above, they were only guesses. Even if a winds
measured by portable Doppler radar (slightly above ground level) had been over
318 mph, the tornado would still be rated "only" F5 since F5 is the most
intense possible damage level. On the Enhanced F-scale,
there is no such thing as "F6."
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What
is a "significant" tornado? A
tornado is classified as "significant" if it does F2 or greater damage
on the Enhanced F scale. Grazulis (1993) also included
killer tornadoes of any damage scale in his significant tornado database. It is
important to know that those definitions are arbitrary, for scientific research.
No tornado is necessarily insignificant. Any tornado can kill or cause
damage; and some tornadoes rated less than F2 probably could do F2 or greater
damage if they hit a well-built house during peak intensity.
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Big
fat tornadoes are the strongest ones, right? Not
necessarily. There is a statistical trend (as documented
by NSSL's Harold Brooks) toward wide tornadoes having higher F-scale
damage. This can be out of more strength or out of greater opportunity for
targets to damage -- or some blend of both. However, the size or shape of any
particular tornado does not say anything conclusive about its strength. Some
small "rope"
tornadoes can still do violent damage of F4
or F5; and some very large tornadoes over a quarter-mile wide have produced
only weak damage of F0
to F1.
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Can't
we weaken or destroy tornadoes somehow, like by bombing them or sucking out
their heat with a bunch of dry ice? The
main problem with anything which could realistically stand a chance at affecting
a tornado (e.g., hydrogen bomb) is that it would be even more deadly and
destructive than the tornado itself. Lesser things (like huge piles of dry ice
or smaller conventional weaponry) would be too hard to deploy in the right place
fast enough, and would likely not have enough impact to affect the tornado much
anyway. Imagine the legal problems one would face, too, by trying to bomb or ice
a tornado, then inadvertantly hurting someone or destroying private property in
the process. In short -- bad idea!
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How
does cloud seeding affect tornadoes? Nobody
knows, for certain. There is no proof that seeding can or cannot change tornado
potential in a thunderstorm. This is because there is no way to know that the
things a thunderstorm does after seeding would not have happened anyway.
This includes any presence or lack of rain, hail, wind gusts or tornadoes.
Because the effects of seeding are impossible to prove or disprove, there is a
great deal of controversy in meteorology about whether it works, and if so,
under what conditions, and to what extent.
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What
does a tornado sound like? That
depends on what it is hitting, its size, intensity, closeness and other factors.
The most common tornado sound is a continuous rumble, like a closeby train.
Sometimes a tornado produces a loud whooshing sound, like that of a waterfall or
of open car windows while driving very fast. Tornadoes which are tearing through
densely populated areas may be producing all kinds of loud noises at once, which
collectively may make a tremendous roar. Just because you may have heard a
loud roar during a damaging storm does not necessarily mean it was a tornado.
Any intense thunderstorm wind can produce damage and cause a roar.
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Where
can I get tornado pictures? Photographic
prints of tornadoes are sold by a number of storm chasers and by the NSEA
Concession. You can see many interesting free weather images at http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/noaa_products/.
There are also several stock photography agencies specializing in, or peddling
on the side, weather photos which include tornadoes. A search engine can help
you find online stock photo outfits and tornado photographs. For digital online
photos, many tornado-related websites display images; but since all personal
photography is legally copyrighted upon creation. Photos on this site and all
National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) agencies, including the National Weather
Service, are public domain and free to download, though credit to the agency
and/or source is required.
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Where
can I get video of tornadoes? Public-domain
videos of National Severe Storms Lab tornado intercept footage are available for
a reproduction fee through a video
transfer service used by NSSL. Many production companies, TV stations and
storm chasers have made videotapes of tornadoes available for sale as well. Try
web search engines and storm chaser pages. This FAQ will not endorse any
particular commercial tornado video source or tour operation.
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Do
hurricanes and tropical storms produce tornadoes? Often,
but not always. There are great differences from storm to storm, not necessarily
related to tropical cyclone size or intensity. Some landfalling hurricanes in
the U.S. fail to produce any known tornadoes, while others cause major
outbreaks. The same hurricane also may have none for awhile, then erupt with
tornadoes...or vice versa! Andrew (1992), for example, spawned several tornadoes
across the Deep South after crossing the Gulf, but produced none during its
rampage across South Florida. Katrina (2005) spawned numerous tornadoes after
its devastating LA/MS landfall, but only one in Florida (in the Keys). Though
fewer tornadoes tend to occur with tropical depressions and tropical storms than
hurricanes, there are notable exceptions like TS Beryl of 1994 in the Carolinas.
Some tropical cyclones even produce two distinct sets of tornadoes -- one around
the time of landfall over Florida or the Gulf Coast, the other when well inland
or exiting the Atlantic coast.
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What's
the nature of tornadoes in hurricanes and tropical storms? Hurricane-spawned
tornadoes tend to occur in small, low-topped supercells within the outer
bands, NNW through ESE of the center -- mainly the northeast quadrant. There,
the orientation and speed of the winds create vertical shear profiles somewhat
resembling those around classic
Great Plains supercells -- the shear being in a shallower layer but often
stronger. Occasionally a tornado will happen in the inner bands as well, but the
large majority still form outside the hurricane force wind zone. Because
tornado-producing circulations in hurricane supercells tend to be smaller and
shorter-lived than their Midwest counterparts, they are harder to detect on Doppler
radar, and more difficult to warn for. But hurricane-spawned tornadoes can
still be quite deadly and destructive, as shown by the F3 tornado from Hurricane
Andrew at La Place LA (1992, 2 killed) and an F4 tornado at Galveston TX from
Hurricane Carla (1961, 8 killed).
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Do
tropical cyclones produce waterspouts? Yes.
Waterspouts -- tornadoes over water -- have been observed in tropical systems.
We don't know how many of them happen in tropical cyclones, but a majority
probably are from supercells. The similarity in Doppler
radar velocity signatures over water to tornado-producing cells in
landfalling hurricanes suggests that it may be common -- and yet another good
reason for ships to steer well clear of tropical cyclones.
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Does
tropical cyclone strength or size matter for tornadoes? Often,
but not always. Relatively weak hurricanes like Danny (1985) have spawned
significant supercell tornadoes well inland, as have larger, more intense storms
like Beulah (1967) and Ivan (2004). In general, the bigger and stronger the wind
fields are with a tropical cyclone, the bigger the area of favorable wind shear
for supercells and tornadoes. But supercell tornadoes (whether or not in
tropical cyclones) also depend on instability, lift and moisture. Surface
moisture isn't lacking in a tropical cyclone, but sometimes instability and lift
are too weak. This is why tropical systems tend to produce more tornadoes in the
daytime and near any fronts that may get involved in the cyclone circulation. It
is also why SPC won't always have tornado watches out for every instance
of a tropical cyclone affecting land. For more details, there is a set of
articles on tropical cyclone tornadoes listed in the Scientific
References section. For more information on hurricanes, go to the Tropical
Cyclone FAQ by Chris Landsea, Neal Dorst and Erica Rule.
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TORNADO
FORECASTING
Who
forecasts tornadoes? In
the U.S., only the National Weather Service (NWS) issues tornado forecasts
nationwide. Warnings come from each
NWS office. The Storm
Prediction Center issues watches,
general severe
weather outlooks, and mesoscale
discussions. Tornadoes in Canada are handled by the Meteorological
Service of Canada. Very few other nations have specific tornado watch and
warning services.
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How
do you forecast tornadoes? This
is a very simple question with no simple answer! Here is
a very generalized view from the perspective of a severe weather
forecaster: When predicting severe weather (including tornadoes) a day or two in
advance, we look for the development of temperature and wind flow patterns in
the atmosphere which can cause enough moisture, instability, lift, and wind
shear for tornadic thunderstorms. Those are the four needed ingredients. But
it is not as easy as it sounds. "How much is enough" of those is not a
hard fast number, but varies a lot from situation to situation -- and sometimes
is unknown! A large variety of weather patterns can lead to tornadoes; and
often, similar patterns may produce no severe weather at all. To further
complicate it, the various computer models we use days in advance can have major
biases and flaws when the forecaster tries to interpret them on the scale of
thunderstorms. As the event gets closer, the forecast usually (but not always)
loses some uncertainty and narrows down to a more precise threat area. [At SPC,
this is the transition
from outlook to mesoscale discussion to watch.] Real-time weather
observations -- from satellites, weather stations, balloon packages, airplanes,
wind profilers and radar-derived winds -- become more and more critical the
sooner the thunderstorms are expected; and the models become less important. To
figure out where the thunderstorms will form, we must do some hard, short-fuse
detective work: Find out the location, strength and movement of the fronts,
drylines, outflows, and other boundaries between air masses which tend to
provide lift. Figure out the moisture and temperatures -- both near ground and
aloft -- which will help storms form and stay alive in this situation. Find the
wind structures in the atmosphere which can make a thunderstorm rotate as a supercell,
then produce tornadoes.
[Many supercells never spawn a tornado!] Make an educated guess where the most
favorable combination of ingredients will be and when; then draw the areas and
type the forecast.
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That
sounds really hard. What hardware and software tools do you
use to help you forecast tornadoes? The
most important hardware for forecasting at the Storm
Prediction Center is the human hand. Numerous hand-drawn
analyses of surface and upper-air data are still performed at SPC every day
so forecasters can be intimately familiar with the weather features. SPC
forecasters also use high-performance computer workstations (mainly running Unix
and Windows 98), with a huge variety of software to display the things we need
to help us forecast severe weather. The variety of those things is enormous:
many kinds of computer
model displays, satellite
image loops, radar
displays, wind
profiler and radar-wind
plots, data from
surface weather stations, upper
air data from balloons and planes, lightning
strike plots, weather
data tables, multiple-source
overlays, and more. It may sound trite; but by far, the most important
software in the tornado forecast process is within the human brain. The
forecaster must use it to sort all that information, toss out what is not
needed, properly interpret what is needed, and put it into a coherent form --
all on a time deadline.
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What
is needed to be a good tornado forecaster? It
all starts with...
- Motivation: Almost all severe storms forecasters are passionate
about violent weather, with an intense desire to learn about and become
better at predicting it. For many, this dates back into childhood -- a
first-hand encounter with violent storms, images on TV or in books and
magazines, or even a deep attraction to storms which goes back too far to
recall. Others start out in other fields or college majors, then became
fascinated with severe weather. In any case, this desire leads to...
- Education: Consistently good severe storms forecasters have a solid
educational background in atmospheric science which allows them to
understand "textbook" concepts of thunderstorm formation. They
don't stop with their college education, either. They constantly re-educate
themselves in the latest discoveries about severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes -- reading scientific journal articles on cutting-edge research,
perhaps doing some research themselves. The understanding of storms which
results lets the forecaster think of "conceptual models" --
visualizations of what the storms will do and how.
- Flexibility: Because the atmosphere doesn't read textbooks or
science journals, the forecaster must adapt those "classroom"
ideas to an endless variety of day-to-day situations which may look a lot
different. He or she also should be able to recognize when and why a
forecast is not working out, and make the right adjustments. These skills
come from...
- Experience: In meteorology, history never repeats itself exactly.
But certain types of situations do recur, allowing the forecaster to set a
mental benchmark for what to expect. From there, he or she can better decide
what data will be most important to examine, and what data will not be as
relevant to the situation. Experienced forecasters are able to learn how bad
forecasts went wrong and how good forecasts worked each time, building a
more complete mental warehouse of severe storm forecast knowledge as time
passes. When the experience is continually blended with motivation,
flexibility and more education, he or she will keep improving as a
forecaster.
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What
is the tornado forecast for next spring? Are there going to be tornadoes in Iowa
the week of next October 5? We
just don't know. Tornado forecasting today and tomorrow is quite difficult
already. Specific severe weather forecasting more than days in advance is little
more than guessing, or using tornado climatology for the forecast area and time
of year. For that reason, there is no such thing as a long range severe storm or
tornado forecast. There are simply too many small-scale variables involved which
we cannot reliably measure or model weeks or months ahead of time; so no
scientific forecasters even attempt them. Our farthest convective outlook is for
day-3, and can be found on the SPC
Forecasts page. Perhaps, someday, the density of weather observations and
atmospheric modelling capabilities will advance enough to allow us to do severe
storms forecasting many days out with some degree of accuracy better than a coin
toss. We are a long, long way from that kind of forecasting!
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What
is the role of Doppler radar in tornado forecasting? Each
NWS forecast office uses output from at least one Doppler
radar in the area to help to determine if a warning
is needed. Doppler radar signatures can tell warning meteorologists a great deal
about a thunderstorm's structure, but usually can't see the tornado itself. This
is because the radar beam gets too wide to resolve even the biggest tornadoes
within a few tens of miles after leaving the transmitter. Instead, a radar
indicates strong winds blowing toward and away from it in a way that tells
forecasters, "An intense circulation probably exists in this storm and a
tornado is possible." Possible doesn't mean certain, though. That is why
local forecasters must also depend on spotter reports, SPC
forecast guidance on the general severe weather threat, and in-house
analysis of the weather situation over the region containing thunderstorms, to
make the best-informed warning decisions.
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What
was the first successful tornado forecast? Nobody
knows when was the first time someone claimed a tornado would occur in an area,
and it happened. But the first documented, successful tornado forecast by
meteorologists was on March 25, 1948, by Air Force Capt.
(later Col.) Robert Miller and Major Ernest Fawbush.
After they noticed striking similarities in the developing weather pattern to
others which produced tornadoes (including the Tinker AFB, OK, tornado several
days before), Fawbush and Miller advised their superior officer of a tornado
threat in central Oklahoma that evening. Compelled from above to issue a yes/no
decision on a tornado forecast after thunderstorms developed in western
Oklahoma, they put out the word of possible tornadoes, and the base carried out
safety precautions. A few hours later, despite the tiny odds of a repeat, the
second tornado in five days directly hit the base. For more insight into this
event, Charlie Crisp has transcribed the late Col. Miller's recollections of the
event; and they are
now online.
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What
is the history of tornado forecasting? It's
too long and eventful to summarize here; but there is an online
guide at NSSL, as well as a timeline
of SELS and SPC, and a history
of the SPC that provide insight into how tornado prediction has evolved.
There is also an entire book devoted to the subject: Scanning the Skies : A
History of Tornado Forecasting by Marlene Bradford (hardcover - March 2001).
Some libraries, bookstores and online book sellers carry this comprehensive and
detailed history work.
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Was
tornado forecasting once banned in the U.S.? Yes.
Before 1950, at various stages of development of the Weather Bureau, the use of
the word "tornado" in forecasts was at times strongly discouraged and
at other times forbidden, because of a fear that predicting tornadoes may cause
panic. This was in an era when very little was known about tornadoes compared to
today, by both scientists and the public at large. Tornadoes were, for most,
dark and mysterious menaces of unfathomable power, fast-striking monsters from
the sky capable of sudden and unpredictable acts of death and devastation. As
the weather patterns which led to major tornado events became better documented
and researched, the mystery behind predicting them began to clear -- a process
which still is far from complete, of course. In 1950, the Weather Bureau revoked
the ban (PDF) on mentioning tornadoes in forecasts.
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How
has SPC performed with tornado forecasting? By
most measures, SPC (formerly SELS, NSSFC) has improved its tornado forecasting
over the past few decades. There are many ways to objectively gauge forecast
performance -- for example, verifying
tornado watches with tornado reports and both
watch types by all severe reports. The general trend from 1985-2003 has been
for a greater percentage of tornado watches to contain tornadoes.
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TORNADO
DAMAGE
How
is tornado damage rated? The
most widely used method worldwide, for over three decades, was the F-scale
developed by Dr. T. Theodore Fujita. In the U.S., and probably elsewhere within
a few years, the new Enhanced F-scale is becoming the
standard for assessing tornado damage. In Britain, there is a scale
similar to the original F-scale but with more divisions; for more info, go to the
TORRO scale website. In both original F- and TORRO-scales, the wind speeds
are based on calculations of the Beaufort
wind scale and have never been scientifically verified in real tornadoes.
Enhanced F-scale winds are derived from engineering guidelines but still are
only judgmental estimates. Because:
- Nobody knows the "true" wind speeds at ground level in most
tornadoes, and
- The amount of wind needed to do similar-looking damage can vary greatly,
even from block to block or building to building,
...damage rating is (at best) an exercise in educated guessing. Even
experienced damage-survey meteorologists and wind engineers can and often do
disagree among themselves on a tornado's strength.
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Who
surveys tornado damage? What's the criteria for the National Weather Service to
do a survey? This
varies from place to place; and there is no rigid criteria. The responsibility
for damage survey decisions at each
NWS office usually falls on the Warning-Coordination Meteorologist (WCM)
and/or the Meteorologist in Charge (MIC). Budget constraints keep every tornado
path from having a direct ground survey by NWS personnel; so spotter,
chaser and news accounts may be used to rate relatively weak, remote or
brief tornadoes. Killer tornadoes, those striking densely populated areas, or
those generating reports of exceptional damage are given highest priority for
ground surveys. Most ground surveys involve the WCM and/or forecasters not
having shift responsibility the day of the survey. For outbreaks and unusually
destructive events -- usually only a few times a year -- the NWS may support
involvement by highly experienced damage survey experts and wind engineers from
elsewhere in the country. Aerial
surveys are expensive and usually reserved for tornado events with multiple
casualties and/or massive degrees of damage. Sometimes, local NWS offices may
have a cooperative agreement with local media or police to use their helicopters
during surveys.
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How
can a tornado destroy one house and leave the next one almost unscratched?
Most
of the time, this happens either with multiple-vortex
tornadoes or very small, intense single-vortex tornadoes. The winds in most of a
multivortex tornado may only be strong enough to do
minor damage to a particular house. But one of the smaller embedded subvortices,
perhaps only a few dozen feet across, may strike the house next door with winds
over 200 mph, causing complete destruction. Also, there can be great differences
in construction from one building to the next, so that even in the same wind
speed, one may be flattened while the other is barely nicked. For example, a
flimsy, unanchored mobile home may be obliterated
while all surrounding objects suffer little or no damage.
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How
do tornadoes do some weird things, like drive straw into trees, strip road
pavement and drive splinters into bricks? The
list of bizarre things attributed to tornadoes is almost endless. Much of it is
folklore; but there are some weird scenes in tornado damage. Asphalt pavement
may strip when tornado winds sandblast the edges with gravel and other small
detritus, eroding the edges and causing chunks to peel loose from the road base.
Storm chasers and damage surveyors have observed this phenomenon often after the
passage of a violent tornado. With a specially designed cannon, wind
engineers at Texas Tech University have fired boards and other objects at
over 100 mph into various types of construction materials, duplicating some of
the kinds of "bizarre" effects, such as wood splinters embedded in
bricks. Intense winds can bend a tree or other objects, creating cracks in which
which debris (e.g., hay straw) becomes lodged before the tree straightens and
the crack tightens shut again. All bizarre damage effects have a physical cause
inside the roiling maelstrom of tornado winds. We don't fully understand what
some of those causes are yet, however; because much of it is almost impossible
to simulate in a lab.
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I've
heard about tornadoes picking up objects and carrying them for miles. Does
this happen? Who does research on it? Yes,
numerous tornadoes have lofted (mainly light) debris many miles into the sky,
which was then carried by middle- and upper-atmospheric winds for long
distances. The vertical winds in tornadoes can be strong enough to temporarily
levitate even heavy objects if they have a large face to the wind or flat sides
(like roofs, walls, trees and cars), and are strong enough to carry lightweight
objects tens of thousands of feet high. Though the heaviest objects, such as
railroad cars, can only be airborne for short distances, stories of checks and
other papers found over 100 miles away are often true. The Worcester MA tornado
of 9 June 1953 carried mattress pieces high into the thunderstorm, where they
were coated in ice, before they fell into Boston Harbor. Pilots reported seeing
debris fluttering through the air at high altitude near the thunderstorm which
spawned the Ruskin Heights MO tornado of 20 May 1957. There is a research
group at the University of Oklahoma which studies tornado debris flight. If
you personally know of a case of tornado debris carried long-distance, they have
a hotline you can call to report it.
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How
does the damage from tornadoes compare to that of hurricanes? The
differences are in scale. Even though winds from the strongest tornadoes far
exceed that from the strongest hurricanes, hurricanes typically cause much more
damage individually and over a season, and over far bigger areas. Economically,
tornadoes cause about a tenth as much damage per year, on average, as
hurricanes. Hurricanes tend to cause much more overall destruction than
tornadoes because of their much larger size, longer duration and their greater
variety of ways to damage property. The destructive core in hurricanes can be
tens of miles across, last many hours and damage structures through storm surge
and rainfall-caused flooding, as well as from wind. Tornadoes, in contrast, tend
to be a few hundred yards in diameter, last for minutes and primarily cause
damage from their extreme winds.
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Where
can I find free pictures of tornado damage?
We
have some public domain images of typical examples of F0 through F5 tornado
damage linked from this FAQ's F-scale
page. Otherwose, public-domain tornado damage pictures are scattered among
various National Weather Service websites. Because web addresses change so
often, we don't maintain a listing of them here; but you can start your search
at this
map of all NWS websites. Browse around for damage survey photos in severe
weather and tornado event sections of local
NWS office pages; and please make sure the photos are not copyrighted
before using them. If there are any doubts, or to get permission to use
copyrighted material, e-mail the webmaster at that office. SPC
has some public-domain images and descriptions of Spencer, SD tornado damage
available here.
If you want hardcopies for research projects, the best bet is to download and
print public-domain images from a high-quality color printer. Even when using
public-domain images, you should give proper credit to the source. Historical
archives at local and college libraries might have public-domain hardcopy prints
of historical tornado damage in your area.
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TORNADO
SAFETY
What
should I do in case of a tornado? That
depends on where you are. This
list of tornado safety tips covers most situations.
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What
is a tornado watch?
A
tornado watch defines an area shaped like a parallelogram,
where tornadoes and other kinds of severe weather are possible in the next
several hours. It does not mean tornadoes are imminent -- just that you need to
be alert, and to be prepared to go to safe shelter if tornadoes do happen or a
warning is issued. This is the time to turn on local TV or radio, turn on and
set the alarm switch on your weather radio, make sure you have ready access to
safe shelter, and make your friends and family aware of the potential for
tornadoes in the area. The Storm
Prediction Center issues tornado and severe thunderstorm watches; here
is an example. For more information on tornado watches and other SPC
bulletins, go
here.
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What
is a tornado warning? A
tornado warning means that a tornado has been spotted, or that Doppler
radar indicates a thunderstorm circulation which can spawn a tornado. When a
tornado warning is issued for your town or county, take immediate safety
precautions. local
NWS offices issue tornado warnings.
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Do
mobile homes attract tornadoes? Of
course not. It may seem that way, considering most tornado deaths occur in them,
and that some of the most graphic reports of tornado damage come from mobile
home communities. The reason for this is that mobile homes are, in general, much
easier for a tornado to damage and destroy than well-built houses and office
buildings. A brief, relatively weak tornado which may have gone undetected in
the wilderness -- or misclassified as severe straight-line thunderstorm winds
while doing minor damage to sturdy houses -- can blow
a mobile home apart. Historically, mobile home parks have been reliable indicators,
not attractors, of tornadoes.
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Long
ago, I was told to open windows to equalize pressure. Now I have heard that's a
bad thing to do. Which is right? Opening
the windows is absolutely useless, a waste of precious time, and can be very
dangerous. Don't do it. You may be injured by flying glass trying to do it. And
if the tornado hits your home, it will blast the windows open anyway.
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I've
seen a video of people running under a bridge to ride out a tornado. Is that
safe? Absolutely
not! Stopping under a bridge to take shelter from a tornado is a very dangerous
idea, for several reasons:
- Deadly flying debris can still be blasted into the spaces between bridge
and grade -- and impaled in any people hiding there.
- Even when strongly gripping the girders (if they exist), people may be
blown loose, out from under the bridge and into the open -- possibly well up
into the tornado itself. Chances for survival are not good if that happens.
- The bridge itself may fail, peeling apart and creating large flying
objects, or even collapsing down onto people underneath. The structural
integity of many bridges in tornado winds is unknown -- even for those which
may look sturdy.
- Whether or not the tornado hits, parking on traffic lanes is illegal and
dangerous to yourself and others. It creates a potentially deadly hazard for
others, who may plow into your vehicle at full highway speeds in the rain,
hail, and/or dust. Also, it can trap people in the storm's path against
their will, or block emergency vehicles from saving lives.
The people in that infamous video were extremely fortunate not to have been hurt
or killed. They were actually not
inside the tornado vortex itself, but instead in a surface inflow jet
-- a small belt of intense wind flowing into the base of the tornado a few dozen
yards to their south. Even then, flying debris could have caused serious injury
or death. More recently, on 3
May 1999, two people were killed and several others injured outdoors in
Newcastle and Moore OK, when a violent tornado blew them out from under bridges
on I-44
and I-35.
Another person was killed that night in his truck, which was parked under a
bridge. For more information, meteorologist Dan Miller of NWS Norman has
assembled 25-slide
online presentation about this problem.
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So
if I'm in a car, which is supposed to be very unsafe, and shouldn't get
under a bridge, what can I do? Vehicles
are notorious as death traps in tornadoes, because they are easily
tossed and destroyed. Either leave the vehicle for sturdy shelter or drive
out of the tornado's path. When the traffic is jammed or the tornado is bearing
down on you at close range, your only option may be to park safely off the
traffic lanes, get out and find a sturdy building for shelter, if possible. If
not, lie flat in a low spot, as far from the road as possible (to avoid flying
vehicles). However, in open country, the best option is to escape if the tornado
is far away. If the traffic allows, and the tornado is distant, you
probably have time to drive out of its path. Watch the tornado closely for a few
seconds compared to a fixed object in the foreground (such as a tree, pole, or
other landmark). If it appears to be moving to your right or left, it is not
moving toward you. Still, you should escape at right angles to its track: to
your right if it is moving to your left, and vice versa -- just to put more
distance between you and its path. If the tornado appears to stay in the same
place, growing larger or getting closer -- but not moving either right or left
-- it is headed right at you. You must take shelter away from the car or get out
of its way fast!
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I
have a basement, and my friend said to go to the southwest corner in a tornado. Is
that good? Not
necessarily. The SW corner is no safer than any other part of the basement,
because walls, floors and furniture can collapse (or be blown) into any corner.
The "safe southwest corner" is an old myth based on the belief that,
since tornadoes usually come from the SW, debris will preferentially fall into
the NE side of the basement. There are several problems with this concept,
including:
- Tornadoes are not straight-line winds, even on the scale of a house, so
the strongest wind may be blowing from any direction; and
- Tornadoes themselves may arrive from any direction.
In a basement, the safest place is under a sturdy workbench, mattress or other
such protection -- and out from under heavy furniture or appliances resting on
top of the floor above.
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What
is a safe room? So-called
"safe rooms" are reinforced small rooms built in the interior of a
home, which are fortified by concrete and/or steel to offer extra protection
against tornadoes, hurricanes and other severe windstorms. They can be built in
a basement, or if no basement is available, on the ground floor. In existing
homes, interior bathrooms or closets can be fortified into "safe
rooms" also. FEMA has
more details online.
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What
about community tornado shelters? Community
tornado shelters are excellent ideas for apartment complexes, schools,
mobile home parks, factories, office complexes and other facilities where large
groups of people live, work or study. FEMA has some excellent design
and construction guidance for these kinds of shelters; and a licensed
engineer can help customize them to the needs of your facility.
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What
about tornado safety in sports stadiums or outdoor festivals? Excellent
question -- and a very, very disturbing one to many meteorologists. Tornadoes
have passed close to such gatherings on a few occasions, including a horse race
in Omaha on 6 May 1975 and a crowded dog track in West Memphis AR on 14 December
1987. A supercell without a tornado hit a riverside
festival in Ft. Worth in 1995, catching over 10,000 people outdoors and
bashing many of them with hail bigger than baseballs. Just in the last few
years, tornadoes have hit the football stadium for the NFL Tennessee Titans, and
the basketball arena for the NBA Utah Jazz. Fortunately, they were both nearly
empty of people at the time. There is the potential for massive death tolls if a
stadium or fairground is hit by a tornado during a concert, festival or sporting
event -- even with a warning in effect. Fans may never know about the warning;
and even if they do, mass-panic could ensue and result in casualties even if the
tornado doesn't hit. Stadium and festival managers should work with local
emergency management officials to develop a plan for tornado emergencies -- both
for crowd safety during the watch and warning stages, and (similar to a
terrorism plan) for dealing with mass casualties after the tornado.
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I
am a school administrator, and I don't know where to start with developing a
safety plan. Can you help? Gladly.
Every school is different, so a safety plan which works fine for one may not be
well-suited for another. There is a
website with preparedness tips for school administrators which can provide
helpful tips in devising a safety plan. These strategies can be adapted for
nursing homes, dorms, barracks and similar structures as well.
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I
am
seeking advice to protect employees in a large,
one-story commercial building that has pre-poured cement outer walls and a metal
roof. We have no basement, the interior offices are drywall partitions with a
dropped ceiling and there does not appear to be any area that is secure. The
local fire department has no suggestions. This
manner of construction is very common; however, it's hard to know the integrity
of any particular building without an engineering analysis, preferably by hiring
a specialist with experience in wind engineering. My experience doing damage
surveys is that large-span, pre-fab, concrete and metal beam buildings are very
sturdy up to a "break point" -- which can vary a lot from site to site
-- but then crumple quickly and violently once that threshold is reached. A
concrete-lined (and -topped) safe room with no windows is recommended. This is
an emergency bunker that may double as a restroom, break room or employee
lounge, but should be big enough to fit all occupants in the event of a warning.
For more information on safe rooms, see FEMA's
safe room page, which deals mainly with residential construction, but which
can be adapted for office use. As noted there, the Wind Engineering Research
Center at Texas Tech University also provides technical guidance about shelters.
Their toll free number is 1-(888) 946-3287, ext. 336.
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What
would happen if a large, violent tornado hit a major city today?
This
has happened on several occasions, including in parts of Oklahoma City on May 3,
1999. Because of excellent, timely watches and warnings and intense media
coverage of the Oklahoma tornado long before it hit, only 36 people were
killed. The damage toll exceeded $1 billion. Still, it did not strike downtown,
and passed over many miles of undeveloped land. Moving the same path north or
south in the same area may have led to much greater death and damage tolls. The
threat exists for a far worse disaster! Placing the
same tornado outbreak in the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex, especially during
rush hour gridlock (with up to 62,000 vehicles stuck in the path), the damage
could triple what was done in Oklahoma. There could be staggering death tolls in
the hundreds or thousands, and overwhelmed emergency services. Ponder the
prospect of such
a tornado's path in downtown Dallas, for example. The North Texas Council of
Governments and NWS Ft. Worth has compiled a
very detailed study of several such violent tornado disaster scenarios in
the Metroplex, which could be adapted to other major metro areas as well.
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Could
we have some sort of alert system where a computer automatically calls people in
a tornado warning to let them know they could be in danger? This
idea has some merit. Right now, though, there are several logistical problems.
First, a tornado may take out phone lines, or the power to run them. Barring
that, the phone network reaches saturation pretty easily if someone (or
something) tries to try to dial thousands of numbers at once. Finally, people
would need to be patient and willing to accept a majority of false alarm calls.
Most tornado warnings do not contain tornadoes, because of the uncertainties
built into tornado detection which we can't yet help. And even when a tornado
happens, it usually hits only a tiny fraction of the warned area (again, because
of forecasting uncertainties); so most people called by the automated system
would not be directly hit.
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I
recently moved from the Plains and noticed that there are no "tornado
warning" sirens here. Is this because tornadoes don't occur here? Isn't it
required to have sirens everywhere? Siren
policy seems to vary a lot from place to place; and it is something over which
the National Weather Service has no control. There is no nationwide requirement
for tornado sirens. The NWS issues watches and warnings; but it is up to the
local governments to have a community readiness system in place for their
citizens. In conversations with emergency managers and spotter coordinators, I
have found that the two most common reasons for a lack of sirens are low budgets
and the perception that tornadoes cannot happen in an area. The latter is
false; and the former is a matter of fiscal priorities. Your city and/or county
emergency manager would be the first person to query about the tornado
preparedness program in your community.
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Our
office would like to print signs (universal symbol image type signs) similar to
"emergency exit," "fire extinguisher," etc. that could be
used to identify designated tornado shelter areas. Can you provide me with a
graphic or something I can use? Sure!
There isn't a universal tornado shelter symbol yet. Any such sign should be very
bold and noticeable -- yet designed to be simple, with minimal visual clutter,
so even a small child can recognize it. In response to this question, here is one
possible tornado shelter sign which may be printed and used freely. There
are also versions with arrows pointing right,
left, up,
and down. The
signs ideally should be printed in color, on heavy card stock or sticker paper
for durability.
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HISTORICAL
TORNADOES
What
were the deadliest U.S. tornadoes? The
"Tri-state" tornado of 18 March 1925 killed 695 people as it raced
along at 60-73 mph in a 219 mile long track across parts of Missouri, Illinois
and Indiana, producing F5 damage. The death toll is an estimate based on the
work of Grazulis (1993); older references have different counts. This event also
holds the known record for most tornado fatalities in a single city or town: at
least 234 at Murphysboro IL. The 25 deadliest tornadoes
on record are
listed here. We also have web
links related to this and other major tornado events.
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What
were the deadliest U.S. tornado days? On
3 April 1974, the main day of the two-day "Super Outbreak," tornadoes
killed 308 people. The next deadliest day for tornadoes was 11 April 1965, the
original "Palm Sunday Outbreak," where 260 perished. A list is online
of top
20 deadliest tornado days since detailed record keeping began in 1950.
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What
was the biggest outbreak of tornadoes? 147
tornadoes touched down in 13 U.S. states on 3 and 4 April, 1974. Here
is a map of them , with F-scale damage plotted beside each. [One more
tornado touched down in Canada at Windsor ON, then lifted as it entered MI, for
a total of 148. Since it did no damage in the U.S., it is not counted in the
U.S. tornado database used to plot our map.] The outbreak killed 310 in the
U.S., 8 in Canada, with 5454 U.S. injuries and 23 hurt in Canada. 48 of the
tornadoes were killers. Seven produced damage rated F5 -- the maximum possible
-- and 23 more were rated F4. This was one of only two outbreaks with over 100
confirmed tornadoes, the other being with Hurricane Beulah in 1967 (115
tornadoes). In 1999, NOAA Public Affairs created a
large website on the 1974 super-outbreak in commemoration of its 25th
anniversary. SPC also has a list
of web links devoted to this and other major tornado events.
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What
was the biggest known tornado? The
Hallam,
Nebraska F4 tornado of 22 May 2004 is the newest record-holder for peak
width, at nearly two and a half miles, as surveyed by Brian Smith of NWS
Omaha. This is probably close to the maximum size for tornadoes; but it is
possible that larger, unrecorded ones have occurred.
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What
single month had the most tornadoes? The
record for most tornadoes in any month (since modern tornado record keeping
began in 1950) was set in May 2003, with 543 tornadoes confirmed in the final
numbers. This easily broke the old mark of 399, set in June 1992. For more on
the most active tornado month, see the May
2003 Tornado Statistics page.
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What
was the strongest tornado? What is the highest wind speed in a tornado?
Nobody
knows. Tornado wind speeds have only been directly recorded in the weaker ones,
because strong and violent tornadoes destroy weather instruments. Mobile Doppler
radars such as the OU Doppler
on Wheels have remotely sensed tornado wind speeds above ground level as
high as 318 mph (3
May 1999 near Bridge Creek OK) -- the highest winds ever found near earth's
surface by any means. [That tornado caused F5
damage.] But ground-level wind speeds in the most violent tornadoes have
never been directly measured.
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What
was the costliest tornado? A
tornado in central and northern Georgia, on 31 March 1973, is listed in Storm
Data as having produced $1,250,000,000.00 in actual damage and
$5,175,000,000.00 when inflation-adjusted -- both record amounts. The Bridge
Creek-Moore-Oklahoma City-Midwest City, OK, tornado of 3
May 1999 currently ranks second in actual dollars but fourth when inflation
adjusted. A top-10 damage lsiting is
online here.
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Do
you have a list of some F5 tornadoes? Yes,
and here
it is. Remember: Because the only way we can compare all tornadoes is by
whatever damage they caused, and F5
damage is only possible when tornadoes hit well-built structures, the true
"violence" of most historical tornadoes is unknown -- especially
before the middle to late 20th century.
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Where
can I find stories and descriptions of historic tornadoes? There
is a partial list
of links to websites dedicated to individual tornado events here at the SPC.
Otherwise, start at your local library. Check the library's historical archives.
It helps when searching online or microfilm newspaper records to know the date
and location of the tornado(es). On the Internet, a search engine can help you
find info on tornado events. Try different combinations of keywords like
"Oak Lawn tornado" and "Illinois tornadoes," for example, if
searching for online material on a tornado in Oak Lawn IL. For
places away from your home area, use the Internet search engines; or write or
e-mail local and university libraries in the area the tornado(es) occurred. Many
larger city and university libraries have a copy of the book Significant
Tornadoes, 1680-1991 by Thomas P. Grazulis -- an excellent source for
stories about thousands of tornadoes in U.S. history. Tom's online site at The
Tornado Project also has some historical tornado
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